History of Democratic Development

Modern democracy started from the United States. With Bill of Rights ratified and US constitution written, the principal of a representative government was firmly in place. If we define democracy as electoral democracy and more than 10% adult male participating in voting, then the sequence of countries that became democracy is the following:

1828  The United States (Election of Andrew Jackson, more than 10% adult male in voting)
1832  The United Kingdom (Reform Act of 1832, removing property requirement in voting)
1848  France (Universal male suffrage was established -- a milestone in democratic history) ,
         Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland,
1849  Denmark
1853  Canada, New Zealand, Argentina
1856  Australia
1884  Norway
1896  Peru

Surprisingly, Australia and New Zealand have very long history of democracy, also starting at the same time as the European continent. This explains their prosperity and stable democratic system today.

Another surprising fact is the Latin American countries like  Argentina and Peru had democratic system before 1900. Thus we see today the whole South America has been democratized. This probably goes back to a long tradition of democracy.

Freedom map of Asia in 2010

Asia has the lowest level of democratization. Below is a map of freedom level, where green indicates free (freedom index 1-2.5), yellow indicates partially free (freedom index 3-5), and purple means not free (index 5.5-7).

As we can see, most of the Asia is not free. This stretches from west Asia all the way to central Asia, eastward to China and North Korea. However, the east and south shore of Asia, most nations have become free or partially free. These include Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, Philippines, India and Sri Lanka.

When will change happen to those non-free nations? As Yemen, Syria and Jordan undergo large protests and tremendous political change, we expect to see West Asia lead the way of democratization of Asia.

Democracy in Africa

In 2010,  there were 18 electoral democracies in Africa. They are mostly in West Africa and South Africa.

In West Africa, there are 8 democratic nations: Mali, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ghana, Benin, Cape Verde and San Tome and Principe. In South Africa, there are 7 democratic nations: South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho, Zambia, Malawi and Tanzania. There are additional 3 island nations on the east of Africa that are democratic: Comoros, Mauritius and  Seychelles.

Democracy on Different Continents

The development of democracies on different continents is uneven. Surprisingly, the continent with the highest ratio of democratic countries is South America, where only one country is non-democractic -- Venezuela. The next in line is Europe, where only 4 countries are non-democratic in 2010: Russia, Belarus, Kosovo and Georgia. Asia and Africa are ranked at the bottom. 

Table 1：The Ratio of Democratic Nations

	Ratio of Democratic Nations	Electoral Democracies	Total number of nations
Asia	26%	12	46
Africa	34%	18	53
Oceania	86%	12	14
North America	87%	20	23
Europe	91%	42	46
South America	92%	11	12

Data source：Freedom in the world 2011 by Freedom House 

In Asia, there are only 12 electoral democracies out of 46 countries. All the west Asian (Mideast) countries are non-democratic. and all Central Asian countries are non-democratic. In Southeast Asia, only 3 out of 11 countries are democratic. These three countries are: Indonesia, East Timor and Philippines. 

The ratio of democratic nations in Africa is a little higher than that of Asia, with 34% as electoral democracies in 2010. With South Sudan, Tunisia and possibly Egypt to join the family of democracies, we will see a higher ratio for Africa in 2011.

This suggests that the final battle for democracy will most likely happen in Asia, particularly in East Asia.  

Correlation between freedom and national wealth

How is a country's freedom level related to its national wealth? People hope that democracy will automatically lead to prosperity. In reality, we see many democratic nations such as India and Bolivia lag behind in their economic development. Using data from Freedom House and World Bank (see references), I plotted the following correlation graph between freedom index and GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) for 183 countries in the world. The freedom index (see detailed explanation in my last blog)  ranges from 1 to 7, with 1 being most free and 7 being most repressive. GDP per capita ranges from $97 for Congo to $52,748 for Luxembourg.

The 9 oil exporting countries (Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Brunei,Oman, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Equatorial Guinea) are apparently outliers to this chart. Their high income is combined with highly restrictive society. Singapore is another outlier, which can be explained by the fact that it is a tiny country made up of a single city. If we remove the 9 oil nations and Singapore from this chart, we will see a clear trend of higher GDP per capita associated with higher freedom. Countries with high GPD per capita more than $10000 are all free (with freedom index <=2.5). In fact, most non-free countries (freedom index >=5.5) have GDP per capita less than $3000.

For those poor countries with GDP per capita less than $3000, the freeman level ranges widely. Below is a plot of countries in this range. China has GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) at $2206, and its freedom index is 6.5.

 

The above graph does not give us insight on where China will move as its income goes up. But fortunately when we plot out the map for countries with GDP per capital between $3000 and $10000, the picture is much clearer. The worst country in this group has its freedom index at 5.5. It is still much better than what Chinese people enjoy today. This graph also suggests that the freedom situation gets better as a nation's income goes up.  When a nation's GDP per capita is higher than $6,000, the freedom improves to 4 or less. This gives us hope that as China continues its economic growth, the civil society will keep developing. The rising middle class will presses for more freedom, and the government is on a irreversible trend of opening up.

Finally, when a country reaches income level of more than $10,000, then it is definitely free. By this time, democratic system is established and a civil society is vibrant. There is no way to turn it back to any form of dictatorship. One good example is the United States. Right after "9-11", there was a hush on any voice that is criticizing the government. People were supposed to unite around the government to fight the terrorists. The Bush government also started its surveillance program on citizens, and many Muslim men were questioned and even detained. For a while, it seems the civil liberty will leave American people. But soon people start to speak out. Even though the mainstream media is still on the side of the government, independent movies, radio programs and books are created to spread the truth. Eventrually the tide is turned and Obama was elected to office in 2008 on change ticket. (Apparently Obama did not turn out as he promised, but it is a different story.)

The correlation between economic prosperity and freedom of a nation gives us a lot of hope. With 8% annual GDP growth rate, China will reach the threshold of $3000 GDP per capita in 4 years. Big change is coming, and we will all be witness to this historical moment. The time has come to ask each of us: Are we a bystander or participant?

Data download: Freedom index and GDP per capita of all countries

References
1. Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2010 survey, freedom index of countries in the world
2. World Bank, World Development Indicators 2010, GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$).

Freedom map of the Mideast in 2010

What is the democracy map for the Mideast?

We can see that, in 2010 none of the Mideast countries (except Israel) is free. The few countries that are partially free are: Morocco, Jordan, Yemen, Lebanon and Turkey. All other countries are not free.

After the Jasmine revolution in early 2011, Tunisia and Egypt will move into partially free or free. Libya, Yemen, Jordan and Syria might also change their color. Thus there is a significant change in the freedom map in 2011 for the Mideast.

Trend of democratic countries in the world

How does the number of democratic countries change over the years?

We can see a clear upward trend in the last 40 years. This trend holds true for  both electoral democracies and liberal democracies. By 2010, there are 115 electoral democracies in the world (out of 194 countries). This is almost 3 times of early 1970s (45 democracies). This trend is very encouraging.





Similar trend can be seen in countries that are liberal democracies. A country is a liberal democracy if its  freedom index is 2.5 or less (1 is the most free), based on the definition from Freedom House. A country that meets the criterion of "being free" is a liberal democracy. We plot the total number of liberal democracies over the years. This upward trend is even clearer than that of electoral democracies.